DEFOE and SPIN-TCP have decided to carry out nationwide representative surveys with the purpose of knowing which are the variables and heuristics that define the preference of voters before the beginning of the electoral season.
The DEFOE-SPIN surveys will not only reveal electoral preferences, they were also designed to evaluate methodological aspects of debates that remain unresolved and will allow to reject (or not) hypotheses about “non-response”, effects of different phrasings in the questionnaire, and the effect of the media on the formation of preferences outside campaign periods.
More important, the DEFOE-SPIN pre-election surveys will be public in their totality, including the database and the questionnaire. In consequence, any interested person, not only academics, but mainly analysts or members of the media, in Mexico or anywhere in the world, can review the methodology, carry out analysis different from those of DEFOE and SPIN and, where appropriate, make suggestions to improve the exercise. In DEFOE and SPIN we have been interested, for a long time, in retaking the agenda on electoral behavior in Mexico, which has lagged in recent years, precisely due to the lack of public and complete databases of electoral surveys.
Electoral surveys in Mexico, which at first provided certainty by granting valuable information to political actors, the media and voters, have sometimes become a source of sub-optimal decisions within political parties when choosing their candidates, of misinterpretations in the media, and even the origin of post-electoral conflicts.
The DEFOE-SPIN surveys seek to spark the debates around electoral behavior in Mexico and set an example of what we understand by transparency and commitment to the scientific work in the publication of electoral surveys. It is important to note that we are against survey regulation by the authorities and we firmly believe that the polling guild should selfregulate through international best practices, including absolute transparency in the publication of information from public surveys.